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2005 Annual Forum
Program & Proceedings

Foreword from the TRF Program Vice-President (PDF, 40K)
Anthony M. Pagano


Sunday, March 6
  5:00-7:00pm Membership Reception
The George Washington University Club
1918 F Street
Monday, March 7
7:30-8:45amTRF Council Meeting
8:00-9:00amTRF Annual Membership Meeting and Breakfast
9:00-10:30amConcurrent Sessions

Airline Financial Performance

Chair - Alan Bender, Embry Riddle Aeronautical University
Airline Balance Sheet Strategies in the Post-9/11 Environment: An Application of Canonical Correlation Analysis and Canonical Scores
Carl A. Scheraga, Fairfield University
John A. Haslem, University of Maryland-College Park
Impact of Landing Fee Policy on Airlines' Service Decisions, Financial Performance and Airport Congestion
Wenbin Wei, San Jose State University
The Use of a Genetic Algorithm in Forecasting Air Carrier Financial Stress and Insolvency
Sergio Davalos, Ph.D., University of Washington-Tacoma
Richard D. Gritta, Ph.D., University of Portland
Bahram Adrangi, Ph.D., University of Portland
Jason Goodfriend, Ph.D., Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Financial Comparisons Across Different Business Models in the Canadian Airline Industry
Triant Flouris, Ph.D, Thomas Walker, Ph.D., Concordia University

Coordination of Transit Services

Chair - Nancy Ody, USDOT, Federal Transit Administration
Enhancing Passenger Mobility Services in North Dakota through Increased Coordination
Gary Hegland, Jon Mielke, Jill Hough, Dr. Jim Miller, Small Urban & Rural Transit Center, North Dakota State University
Strategies for Overcoming Barriers to Paratransit Brokerage
Anthony M. Pagano, Paul Metaxatos, Roseann M. O'Laughlin, Alicia Morreale, University of Illinois at Chicago
Transportation Information Clearinghouse
Karin Allen, Joseph DiJohn, Shamus Misek, University of Illinois at Chicago, Urban Transportation Center

Panel Session on "Research Needs in Transportation Economics"

Chair - Jack Wells, Chief Economist, US Department of Transportation
Panel:
Ken Button, George Mason University
Gerard McCoullogh, University of Minnesota
Gary Barnes, University of Minnesota

Freight Demand Modeling and Forecasting

Chair - Michael S. Bronzini, George Mason University
Framework for the Disaggregate Truck Trip Generation Model Based on the Survey of Retail Businesses
Hyeon-Shic Shin and Kazuya Kawamura, Urban Transportation Center, University of Illinois at Chicago
The Dirty Job of Truck Movement Data Gathering: An Evaluation of Intercept Surveys
Eric Jessup, Ken Casavant, Washington State University
Catherine Lawson, The University at Albany
Alan Kirk, Oregon Dept. of Transportation
Freight Demand Statistical Modeling: A Classification and Review
Maria Boile, Michail Golias, Rutgers University
Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector
Vincent Yao, Transportation Research Center, University of Arkansas at Little Rock
Brian W. Sloboda, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation

10:30-10:45amCoffee Break
10:45-12:00pmPlenary Panel Session: "Transportation Security"

Chair - Robert Gallamore, Director, Transportation Center, Northwestern University
Panel:
Dr. Patrick Griffin, Sandia
Michael Wolfe, North River Consulting Group

12:30-1:45pmLuncheon Session

Jeffery N. Shane, Under Secretary for Policy, USDOT

1:45-3:15pmConcurrent Sessions

Innovations in Air Transportation

Chair - Scott Tarry, Aviation Institute, University of Nebraska at Omaha
Galileo - Technology for Worldwide Air Traffic Control
Richard A. Taylor, Jill A. Lynn, Aviation Technology, Purdue University - Indianapolis
Evolution of the MRO Business: Findings from Research at the Floor Level
Mike Suckow, Dave Stanley, Denver Lopp, Willis Wierich, Joshua Riehle, Aviation Technology, Purdue University
Impact of Air Transport Liberalization and the Role of Framing Economic Mechanism in Airport Regulation and Competition - Modern Approach towards Regulating Utility Industry
Dr. P.S.Senguttuvan, Manager (Economic Planning), Airports Authority of India

Panel Session on "Transportation Demand Forecasting and Highway Funding"

Wenxiong Vincent Yao (Co-Chair), University of Arkansas at Little Rock
Brian W. Sloboda (Co-Chair), U.S. Department of Transportation, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Panel:
Weihua Xiao, University of Arkansas at Little Rock, Department of System Engineering
Michail Gkolias, Rutgers University

Maritime and Ports

Chair - Jean Godwin, American Association of Port Authorities
North American Containerport Capacity
Michael Maloni, Eric Jackson, Black School of Business, Penn State Erie
Analysis of Applicability of Innovative Systems for Transport of Marine Containers
Branislav Dimitrijevic, M.S., Lazar N. Spasovic, Ph.D, N. Aboobaker, Ph.D., New Jersey Institute of Technology
The U.S. Coast Guard Vessel Inspection Program: A Probability Analysis
Wayne K. Talley, Old Dominion University
Di Jin, Hauke Kite-Powell, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution
The Political Economy of Maritime Container Security
Kenneth Button, Marc Thibault, George Mason University

Agricultural Transportation

Chair - Michael Babcock, Kansas State University
Estimating the Impact of Seasonal Truck Shortages to the Pacific Northwest Apple Industry: Transportation Cost Minimization Approach
Eric Jessup, Washington State University
Ryan Herrington, DelMonte, Inc
Storage, Slow Transport and the Law of One Price: Theory with Evidence from Nineteenth Century U.S. Corn Markets
Andrew Coleman, University of Michigan
Transportation Logistics and Supply Chain Characteristics of Washington Hay and Livestock Movements
Stephanie Meenach, Eric Jessup, Ken Casavant, Washington State University

3:15-3:30pmCoffee Break
3:30-5:00pmConcurrent Sessions

Airline Evolution and Change: Deregulation and Beyond

Chair - Scott Tarry, Aviation Institute, University of Nebraska at Omaha
Airline Entry Following U.S. Deregulation: The Definitive List of Startup Passenger Airlines, 1979-2003
William A. Jordan, York University
The Evolution of U.S. Domestic Airline Route Networks since 1990
Clinton V. Oster, Jr., Indiana University
John S. Strong, College of William & Mary
Airport Transportation: The Search for Benefits of Rural Airports
Ken Casavant, Eric Jessup, Jon Newkirk, Washington State University
Network Evolution: A Markov Chain Analysis of US Air Transportation
Dipasis Bhadra, Brendan Hogan, Center for Advanced System Development (CAASD), The MITRE Corporation

Public Transit

Chair - Paul Metaxatos, Urban Transportation Center, University of Illinois at Chicago
Ridership Accuracy and Transit Formula Grants
Xuehao Chu, Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida
Meeting Small Urban Transit Needs in North Dakota: A Case Study Perspective
Del Peterson, Dustin Ulmer, Jill Hough, Small Urban & Rural Transit Center, North Dakota State University
The Stochastic School Transportation Problem
David Ripplinger, Small Urban & Rural Transit Center, North Dakota State University

Panel Session on "U.S. Small Railroads: Track Condition and the Future of this Transportation Link to Rural America"

Chair - Daniel L. Zink, Director of Administration, Red River Valley & Western Railroad Company, Wahpeton, ND
Panel:
Richard F. Timmons, President, American Short Line and Regional Railroad Association, Washington, D.C.
Denver Tolliver, Associate Director & Senior Research Fellow, Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute, North Dakota State University, Fargo, North Dakota

Intermodal Transportation Facilities

Chair - Libby Ogard, Prime Focus LLC
Factors Influencing Inter-Modal Facility Location Decisions: Comparison of Different Empirical Estimation Procedures
Steven Peterson, Washington State University
What Makes Them Viable? Determining the Attributes that Offer Potential Viability to Inter-Modal Truck-Rail Facilities in Washington State
Ken Casavant, Eric Jessup, Washington State University
Planning Considerations for Projected Intermodal Rail Yards in the Chicago Region Studied By Key-Informant Interviews
Norm West, Kazuya Kawamura, University of Illinois at Chicago

5:00-6:00pmReception
Tuesday, March 8
7:30-8:45amTRF Council Meeting
8:00-9:00amJTRF Breakfast
9:00-10:15amConcurrent Sessions

Aviation Safety

Chair - John S. Strong, College of William & Mary
U.S. Commercial Aviation Safety in the 1990s
Clinton V. Oster, Jr., Indiana University
John S. Strong, College of William & Mary
C. Kurt Zorn, Indiana University
Analysis of the Effect of Milestone Aviation Accidents on Safety Policy, Regulation, and Technology
Lagos, A., Motevalli, M., Motevalli*, V. and Sakata, N., Aviation Institute, School of Engineering and Applied Science, The George Washington University
Trends and Analyses of General Aviation Fatalities
Shane Nordyke, Indiana University
Advocating System Safety Concept in Preventing Airline Accidents
Chien-tsung Lu, Michael Wetmore, John Smith, Department of Aviation, Central Missouri State University

Panel Session on "Building Public Support for Better Metropolitan Transportation"

Chair - Robert Saloschin, President, Citizens for Quality Civilization
Panel:
Mahlon Anderson, Staff Director, Public and Government Relations, AAA Mid-Atlantic
Bob Grow, Director, Government Relations, Greater Washington Board of Trade

Inland Water and Pipeline Transportation

Chair - Bruce Lambert, U.S. Army Corps of Engineers
The Economic Value of Barge Transportation: A Case Study of the Minneapolis Upper Harbor
Jerry Fruin, University of Minnesota
Keith Fortowsky, University of Regina
Pacific Northwest Waterborne Commerce: A Detailed Analysis of Up-River and Down-River Movements on the Columbia/Snake River System
Eric Jessup, Shushanik Makaryan, Ken Casavant, Washington State University
Oil Pipeline Markets and Operations
Bradley Hull, John Carroll University

International and Domestic Logistics

Chair - Richard Horn, University of Rhode Island
Transportation Usage and Characteristics of the Washington Warehouse/Distribution Center Industry
Quinton Pike, Ken Casavant, Eric Jessup, Washington State University
Transportation Infrastructure in Asia: Priorities That Will Facilitate Trade with Europe
Nikolaos Deonas and Carl Martland, MIT

10:15-10:30amCoffee Break
10:30-12:00pmConcurrent Sessions

Panel Session on "National Security and Passenger Privacy Rights"

Chair - Timothy Ravich
Panel:
Timothy M. Ravich, Esq., Hunton & Williams LLP, Miami, Florida
Justin Oberman, Transportation Security Administration (TSA), Assistant Administrator of the Office of Transportation Vetting and Credentialing
Paul Rosenzweig, The Heritage Foundation, Center for Legal and Judicial Studies, Senior Legal Research Fellow
David Sobel, Electronic Privacy Information Center, General Counsel
Jay Stanley, American Civil Liberties Union, Communications Director of Technology and Liberty Project

Commuting Trends and Road Pricing

Chair - Lee Giesbrecht, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, USDOT
The Journey to Work: 25 Years on the Jamaicaway
Carl D. Martland, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Emerging Commuting Trends: Evidence from the Chicago Area
Joseph DiJohn, Joost Berman, Siim Soot, Urban Transportation Center, University of Illinois at Chicago
Lessons Learned from the Value Pricing Pilot Program
Patrick DeCorla-Souza, Susan Lee and Angela Jacobs, Federal Highway Administration
An Analysis of Gender Differences in Vehicles Miles Traveled (VMT) Using Nonparametric Methods
Brian W. Sloboda, Bureau of Transportation Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation
Vincent W. Yao, University of Arkansas at Little Rock

Panel Session on "Using Public-Private Partnerships to Develop Rail Freight Infastructure"

Chair - Paul K. Gessner, Senior Freight Specialist, The Port Authority of NY & NJ
Panel:
Steve Eisenach, Director-Public Partnerships, Norfolk Southern
Randolph R. Resor, Vice President, Costing & Economic Analysis, Zeta-Tech Associates, Inc.
Paul K. Gessner, Senior Freight Specialist, The Port Authority of NY & NJ

Motor Carrier Efficiency and Safety

Chair - Libby Ogard, Prime Focus LLC
The Relative Efficiency in the Blending of Strategic Dimensions Utilized in the Generation of Customer Satisfaction in the LTL Motor Carrier Industry
Carl A. Scheraga, Fairfield University
Freight Origin and Destination Study for Washington State Trucking: Characteristics and Trends
Steve Peterson, Eric Jessup, Ken Casavant, Washington State University
The Impact of IT Investment on Safety Performance: Theory and Evidence from the Trucking Industry
David E. Cantor, Curtis M. Grimm and Thomas M. Corsi, The Robert H. Smith School of Business, University of Maryland

12:15-1:30pmLuncheon Session

Senator Kent Conrad, North Dakota


1:45-3:15pmConcurrent Sessions

Aviation and Airport Security

Chair - Vahid Motevalli, George Washington University Aviation Institute
Air Cargo Security - The Cost of Doing Business in the 21st Century
Prof. Kathleen M. Sweet and Prof. Michael Suckow, Purdue University
A Framework for Analysis of Security Measures within On-airport Cargo Facilities
Carla D. Rountree, Delta Airport Consultants
Dr. Michael J. Demetsky, University of Virginia
Crisis Communications - Creating Media Partners for Transportation Disasters
Jill A. Lynn, Aviation Technology, Purdue University - Indianapolis
Post September 11, 2001, Security Measures Impact on the Fiscal Aspects of General Aviation
D. Scott Worrells, Southern Illinois University Carbondale
Vulnerability of Civil Aviation Infrastructure to Attacks by Explosive-Laden Vehicles
Motevalli, V., Lagos, A., Boivin, L., and Marzougui, D., The George Washington University Aviation Institute

Panel Session on "Shifting Patterns of Global Trade"

Chair - Robert Beard, Manager, Market Research, Port Authority of NY & NJ
Panel:
Dr. Asaf Ashar, Professor, National Ports & Waterways Institute, Univ. of New Orleans
John Vickerman, Principal, TranSystems Corp.
Robert Gernon, Vice President - Logistics Sales, Pacer Global Logistics

Public-Private Partnerships

Chair - Don Itzkoff, Foley & Lardner LLP
Public/Private Transportation Partnerships and American Space Transportation
Patrick O'Neil, Carol Ebdon, Ph.D., University of Nebraska at Omaha
NASA Alliances: Collaboration within Public-Private Partnerships
Nanette Scarpellini Metz, Aviation Institute, University of Nebraska at Omaha
A New Public-Private Partnership Model for Road Pricing Implementation
Patrick DeCorla-Souza, Federal Highway Administration
Public-Private Partnerships in the Port Sector: The Case of Stock Listing of Operating Port Entities
Sotiris Theofanis, Maria Boile, Rutgers University

Rail Economics and Safety

Chair - Greg Bereskin, St Ambrose University
A Refined Game Theory Approach to Railroad-Shipper Negotiations
William Huneke, Surface Transportation Board
Risk Assessment at Rail Grade Crossings: The Event Window
Tim Hess, Halcrow Group LTd
Should Shortline Railroads Upgrade Their Systems to Handle Heavy Axle Load Cars? A Kansas Case Study
Michael W. Babcock, James Sanderson, Kansas State University
Positive Train Control (PTC): Calculating Benefits and Costs of a New Railroad Control Technology
Randolph R. Resor, Pradeep K. Patel, ZETA-TECH Associates
Michael E. Smith, Wilbur Smith Associates

3:15-3:30pmCoffee Break
3:30-5:00pmConcurrent Sessions

Panel Session on "Air Traffic Control Financing and Organization"

Chair - Clinton V. Oster, Jr., Indiana University
Panel:
Arthur Shantz, Mathew Hampton, Office of Inspector General, US Department of Transportation
Edward M. Bolen, President, National Business Aircraft Association
John Carr, President, National Air Traffic Controllers Association
John Heimlich, Chief Economist, Air Transport Association
Dorothy Robyn, Senior Consultant, The Brattle Group

Financing Transportation Services

Chair - Joseph DiJohn, Urban Transportation Center, University of Illinois at Chicago
Assessing Transportation Funding Equity within a State: The Case of Miami-Dade County, Florida
Xuehao Chu, Steven E. Polzin, Center for Urban Transportation Research, University of South Florida
Financing Transportation in Fiscally Constrained Times: Transportation Strategies for Mumbai, India
Prakash M.Apte., Urban Development Consultant, World Bank
Does Vehicle Taxation Impact Vehicle Ownership?
Alex Bertram, Pierre Vilain, The Louis Berger Group

Roadway Safety

Chair - Demetra Collia, USDOT, Bureau of Transportation Statistics
Mining and Analysis of Traffic Safety and Roadway Condition Data
Hong Lin, Sudheer Cheedella, John Rushing, Michael Anderson, Ken Keiser, Sara J. Graves, The University of Alabama in Huntsville
Evaluation of Resource Allocation Strategies in Incident Management Systems
Weihua Xiao, University of Arkansas at Little Rock
Supporting Asset Management for Incident Management Using GIS
Nebahat Noyan, Rutgers University