 |  |
- Contents
- Message from the Co-General Editors
- Time Allocations
- GPS Receivers
- Transportation Indicators
- Forecasting Cycles
- Grain Buyers
- Positive Train Control
- Truck-Only Highway Lanes
- Oil Pipeline Markets
- Airline Passenger Profiling Systems
- Traffic Safety
A Message from the JTRF Co-General Editors
Due to the success of JTRF under our publisher (Upper Great Plains Transportation Institute at North Dakota State University) the journal will be published three times per year instead of only two. JTRF will now be published in the spring, summer, and fall. This issue of JTRF contains the usual wide variety of transportation topics that distinguishes JTRF from other transportation journals. Topical areas include:
- Transport and time allocation of urban households
- Use of GPS for crash location
- Forecasting waterborne commerce
- Forecasting cycles in the transportation sector
- Transportation and spatial competition of grain buyers
- Benefits and costs of railroad control technology
- Economics of truck-only highway lanes
- Oil pipeline markets and operations
- Security vs. privacy in airline transport
Cynthia Chen in "Feasible Activity and Travel Time Allocations with a Discrete Choice Model: An Exploratory Study" uses a discrete choice framework to model time allocation to daily activities and travel. Using a direct translog utility function and data from a San Francisco Bay Area travel survey, Chen estimates a model of time allocation between travel and daily activities (i.e. work, shopping, and recreation).
In "Quantification of the Accuracy of Low Priced GPS Receivers for Crash Location," Thobias Sando, Renatus Mussa, John Sobanjo, and Lisa Spainhour quantify the factors that affect the accuracy of GPS receivers for vehicle crash location. The authors found that GPS receiver orientation, site obstructions, and weather have significant effects on GPS receiver accuracy, but the time of day and number of satellites do not.
Mark A. Thoma and Wesley W. Wilson develop and apply a forecasting model of waterborne commerce in "Leading Transportation Indicators: Forecasting Waterborne Commerce Statistics Using Lock Performance Data." The authors forecast total barge tonnage shipped on the Mississippi River, as well as barge shipments of coal and farm products, based on tonnage passing through key locks on the Mississippi River. The model produced forecasts with a relatively small out-of-sample mean square error.
In "Forecasting Cycles in the Transportation Sector," Vincent Yao and Brian W. Sloboda develop a composite leading index to predict business cycles in the transportation sector. From 25 initial candidates, the authors selected seven leading indicators using various screening techniques and time series models. The index performed well in predicting transportation reference cycles. Yao and Sloboda found that the composite leading index signaled downturns in the transportation sector 10 months ahead and upturns six months ahead on average.
Miguel A. Carriquiry and Bruce A. Babcock employ a modified Hotelling spatial competition model to examine impacts of competition among Iowa grain buyers in "The Impact of Transportation Costs on Spatial Competition of Grain Buyers: An Iowa Case Study." The authors found that a reduction in the number of grain buyers results in a decrease in grain price bids by the remaining buyers. Carriquiry and Babcock also found that transportation costs would increase for those farmers who would have to haul their grain a greater distance as a result of decline in the number of grain buyers.
In "Positive Train Control (PTC): Calculating Benefits and Costs of a New Railroad Control Technology," Randolph R. Resor, Michael E. Smith, and Pradeep K. Patel quantify the business benefits of PTC for the Class I railroad industry. The authors found that deployment of PTC would cost $2.3 to $4.4 billion over five years. They estimated annual benefits to be $2.2 to $3.8 billion, and the internal rate of return to be between 44% and 160%.
This issue of JTRF contains three Industry Issue papers, which are descriptive studies focused on a particular mode.
David J. Forkenbrock and Paul F. Hanley examine the conditions under which investment in truck-only highway lanes would be feasible in "Benefits, Costs, and Financing of Truck-Only Highway Lanes." They also discuss the benefits that may accrue to passenger car drivers and operators of heavy trucks. They conclude that the willingness to pay for truck-only lanes by passenger vehicle drivers appears to be quite limited. Forkenbrock and Hanley also found that support for truck-only lanes on the part of trucking firms is likely to depend on their being allowed to operate larger-combination trucks on them.
In "Oil Pipeline Markets and Operations," Bradley Hull compares oil pipeline operations to those of other modes, identifying similarities as well as differences. He also discusses pipeline markets and their changing trends, as well as regulatory constraints and responses. Hull found that oil pipelines serve an industry experiencing shifting markets, proliferation of new products, and outsourcing of transportation. The pipeline industry has responded to these changes with increased entry, capital projects, and reliance on technology.
Timothy M. Ravich discusses the conflict between personal privacy and air travel security in "Airline Passenger Profiling Systems After 9/11: Personal Privacy Versus National Security." Ravich reviews the Transportation Security Administration's (TSA) forthcoming computerized air passenger profiling system called Secure Flight. Accepting the premise that airline passengers need to be pre-screened more thoroughly to increase security, he also discusses important constitutional and practical limitations of profiling. The author also offers recommendations on how TSA policy should change to better deal with the conflict between security and personal privacy.
Kofi Obeng
Co-General Editor – JTRF
Michael W. Babcock
Co-General Editor – JTRF
 Top |
TOC | Next > |